When the Federal Government announced the 2026 Abridged Budget Call Circular, it wasn’t just another document. It was a white flag. A confession. A harsh reality check. The directive was clear: 70% of 2025’s capital projects must be carried over into 2026. Now the question is simple: How can we build a “New Nigeria” when 70% of our energy is spent just trying to finish the “Old” one?
The Rollover Crisis
Nigeria’s policy failure often begins before a new law is even signed. We suffer from “Project Constipation”—too many ideas entering the pipe, and almost nothing coming out the other end. At the centre of this issue are:
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Abandoned Ambitions: Thousands of half-finished roads, dams, and bridges.
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Fiscal Suffocation: New policies need fresh funding, but old debts eat the lunch.
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The “Continuity” Myth: Every new administration wants its own “legacy,” leaving previous policies to rot.
A Budget in Chains
On paper, the 2026 fiscal outlook shows the weight of this baggage:
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Debt Servicing: Projected to rise to ₦15.52 trillion in 2026, up from ₦13.94 trillion in 2025.
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Capital Squeeze: Aggregate capital expenditure is actually projected to drop to ₦22.37 trillion as the government tries to contain spending.
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The Deficit: The gap between what we earn and what we spend is widening to a staggering ₦20.12 trillion.
From a macro perspective, this suggests: We aren’t just funding progress; we are paying a “fine” for past inefficiencies.
Reality on the Ground
Now step outside the data. Talk to:
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A contractor in Abuja who hasn’t been paid since 2024.
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A community leader in Enugu looking at a “state-of-the-art” hospital that stopped at the roofing stage.
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A graduate waiting for a “Youth Fund” that exists in a bill but has no cash in the bank.
Then state what’s happening in real life: When 70% of projects are “deferred,” it means 70% of the promised impact is on pause. That’s not just a statistic. That’s a stagnant economy.
The Core Tension
Here is the real tension:
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The Government: Wants to start new reforms (like the Tax Acts of 2026) to boost revenue.
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The Reality: The revenue generated is immediately swallowed by the interest on old mistakes.
Pressure Points
There are three key areas under scrutiny:
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The “Start-Stop” Culture Changing priorities mid-stream costs the taxpayer billions in mobilization fees for projects that never finish.
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Revenue vs. Debt We are trapped in a cycle where we borrow to pay back what we borrowed, leaving little for actual policy execution.
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Institutional Memory Ministries lose track of why a policy was started, leading to “wasteful duplication” of new ideas that solve old problems.
This is not a lack of vision. But it is a failure of discipline. It is the Debt-Log Phase.
Policies are not judged by the beauty of the “2026 Circular.” They are judged by the completion of the 2020 promises. Until we clear the backlog, the future will remain on hold.
(part 2 of this series is under way….)
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